Third Quarter 2022: Persistent Economic Pressures erode prices
Global economic conditions continue to rough up metals markets. Domestic interest rates and U.S. Inflationary pressures cause uncertainty. Weak to negative outlook for sustained economic growth are bringing skyrocketed values back to earth.
Wholesale Auto Values
Coming off of 2021’s extraordinary scarcity of product, the drop in used values has been expected and in some circles not quite as bad as expected. The vehicle market continues to wildly over-perform pre pandemic numbers however the decline in value is sharp. The most commonly quoted pricing observations seemingly come from Cox Automotive’s Used Vehicle Value Index, it’s been referred to in publications from The Hill, CNN, Marketwatch, CNBC and many more. Nationally news media lines up to watch the spectacle of car values and what it might signal for our overall economy. See the Manheim index below:
ARS Low Value Vehicle Index
ARS has for many years maintained our own observational price index for vehicles at the lower end of the spectrum. We look at high mileage, high year and end of life vehicles presented at wholesale and monitor the market performance. The data sample that drives our index is from many points of sale throughout the vehicle remarketing industry but the recent fluctuations are telling much the same story. Both are seeing approximately a 10% decrease in value Year over Year.
Source: Advanced Remarketing Services*
Crushed Auto Bodies
Recycled steel prices have also been hit lately and are certainly responsible for some of the decrease in value for ARS’s low value index. Construction costs, labor shortages and improving product supply have combined to lower values. There seems to be no easy end in sight for labor issues so we expect some continuation in the months to come.
The price for platinum softened significantly in Q3 down 10% from prior year.
Rhodium’s downward slide has cooled. However prices in the 3rd quarter were as low as they had been through the darkest days of the pandemic.
However, to put this in context, these recent decreases still leave Rhodium at over three times the value in June of 2019 prior to the pandemic.
Though technically not a metals value, fuel prices and transportation costs are impacting global demand and use of the still in demand commodities. The recent slide in fuel prices are helping to cool some of the inflationary pressure.